Which crops will become harder to grow in the UK?

Some key crops, such as strawberries, are likely to become harder to grow in the South East and East Anglia if we see global warming of 2ºC, scientists have predicted.

However, there would be substantial increases in suitability for wine grapes, as well as a broad range of crops not yet widely grown in the UK, including citrus fruits.

This could see British-made marmalade becoming a common sight on our supermarket shelves by 2080, scientists reckon. 

Mapping evidence

The study was led by the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) in collaboration with the University of East Anglia (UEA).

Scientists investigated the future suitability for over 160 existing and new food crops in different regions of the UK under warming scenarios of 2ºC and 4ºC, compared to pre-industrial times.

The modelling study is the most comprehensive research of its kind to date and is also the first to show how suitability for certain produce will vary across the UK.

It provides mapped projections for every 1km square in the UK, giving valuable information to the farming and food sectors on the future opportunities and challenges of cultivating new crops here.

Regional differences

Climate change is already having a major impact on UK agriculture, either affecting crop plants or the ability of farmers to manage them effectively. 

There have been several years of record low yields caused by extreme weather, often in combination, such as a wet winter followed by a particularly dry spring, while new agricultural pests and diseases are becoming established or increasing with climate change.   

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While a changing climate across the UK is expected to support a range of new crops, the study shows the largest increases in suitability will be in the southwest and Scottish borders.

This is due to the benefits of rising temperatures not being cancelled out by more restricted water in the summer, especially under 4 degrees of warming.

However, many areas outside the South East and East Anglia have small field sizes, variable topography and are far from the current food processing and supply chains, limiting potential shifts in production to these regions. 

There are also economic risks investing in new agronomic practices and technology, and potential environmental risks in introducing crops to new locations, including interactions with pollinators, wild crop relatives and pests.

Recommendations

Scientists recommend further research into the viability of the crops that are identified as ‘winners’.

Additionally, changing our agricultural supply and distribution networks to better support farmers growing new crops in new locations.

Other solutions offered include adopting new agricultural systems such as paludiculture (wet farming) and indoor vertical farming; plus breeding and growing more heat- or drought-resilient varieties of existing staple crops.

Study co-author Professor Rachel Warren of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at UEA said: 

“Without such data, agricultural systems are likely to be ‘locked in’ to current crops, with adaptations failing to keep pace with climate change or relying on practices that exacerbate its impacts, such as heavy irrigation that would increase water scarcity.

“Major changes to agricultural systems and diets can take decades to implement and so our long-term projections provide important information well ahead of time for farmers, supermarkets, researchers, policymakers and the public on the opportunities, challenges and trade-offs involved in adapting to the impacts of climate change.”

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