What are the key upcoming challenges for top fruit?

Government policy has resulted in a rise in the number of challenges facing top fruit growers over the past year, but Kantar data reveals there are opportunities for premium apples.

BAPL commercial director Hannah McIlfatrick said now is the time for apple growers to push premium options, as if inflation stays around 2-3%, shoppers are expected to continue trading up. 

While still relatively a small tier, circa 2.2% of the total, premium is the fastest growing tier in terms of both value and volume, with organic in second place. However, Gala still dominates with over 30% of the total share, and Conference nearly 70% for pears.

Less inflation for apples

The total top fruit market has seen spend growth of 6.2% which cannot all be accounted for by the rise in price/kg (1.7%) – weight per purchase and frequency are also responsible. 

Apples have suffered far less from inflation than pears since 2021, with very little of the 7.1% spend growth down to price inflation. Pears, however, have lost out to affordable snacks and trade up into other premium fruits – with a price inflation of 8.4%. 

Pears need to target both the affordable and premium options, and there are opportunities for bigger packs in affordable and trading consumers up into ready to eat in tray, Hannah commented.  

Incline in picked fruit

BAPL data shows just shy of 200,000 tonnes of apples and pears were picked in 2024, almost matching the record crop in 2022.

The data shows a 10-20-year upward incline in picked crop, with more fruit grown in the same hectarage over time. Dips in production are all weather related, including frost, rainfall, or even hail. 

Class one sales from September 2024 to February 2025 are ahead compared to previous years. 

Which supermarkets are performing best?

Looking at supermarket performance in terms of British apple sales, BAPL chair Ali Capper said ASDA has shown sterling performance year on year, as have Lidl and Aldi, while the Co-Op and Morrisons are lagging behind.

Key figures include: 

• Lidl sold 16.5% of the British apple and pear crop, despite a market share of 7.3%
• Aldi sold 19.1% with a market share of 10.3%
• Tesco sold 19% with a market share of 28.3%.

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Government policy

BAPL chair Ali Capper noted that geopolitical instability continues to pose a risk of empty shelves – and this year, there is the added threat of US import tariffs.

A key threat to British growers is the Employer Pays Principle, which could have a significant impact on the sector. It would mean travel and visa costs for seasonal workers would fall to the grower.

BAPL board member James Simpson said the group is engaging fully with Defra’s feasibility study, to make clear that this is unacceptable to the industry. 

While the sector has welcomed the five-year commitment on the Seasonal Agricultural Workers Scheme (SAWS), the threat of reduced worker numbers is not good news – and neither is the end of the PO Fruit & Vegetables scheme this year.

Other challenges, which affect agriculture across the board, include changes to inheritance tax rules, the closure of the Sustainable Farming Incentive, and new suite of compulsory purchase powers.

Meanwhile, business confidence in general is at an all-time low, with a BAPL survey revealing 43% of members are less confident than they were a year ago, while 81% have no plans to build new storage facilities in the next five years.

BAPL estimates that the increases to the national living wage and employer national insurance contributions, have resulted in a 7p increase in cost of production for 1kg of apples. 

Hitting back at recent government policy, Ali said: “On policy that directly affects the ability to increase and grow food production in the UK, it doesn’t feel like the government is listening. 

“It feels like the policy is trying to take out food production. Despite the headlines around food security is national security – that feels like a soundbite that doesn’t mean very much. 

“We are reeling from government policy that feels like it’s trying to restrict our business.”

Assurance schemes

Audit burden is another issue, with many growers facing multiple, duplicating audit and assurance schemes. 

James Simpson noted that his farm is subject to Red Tractor, LEAF and the British Retail Consortium schemes, yet still has to carry out 14-18 additional audits and assurance schemes per year for individual retailers.

Whilst the recent UK Farm Assurance Review was welcomed, it only looked at the production stage, whereas many fruit growers also have packing and distribution operations. 

Retailers were asked to help come up with solutions to the audit burden, as well as challenges with plastics and recycling.

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Plastics and net zero

The government has committed to recycle inflexible plastics at the kerbside, but not until 2027. Currently flow wrap on apples has to be taken back to the store for recycling, which is not high on most consumers’ agenda, Ali noted.

Life cycle carbon analysis for Gala has revealed packaging has the highest impact on growers’ environmental footprint, but flow wrap is important for driving sales, offering convenience and minimising food waste.

Either we need an earlier commitment from government, or an alternative to flow wrap that doesn’t require growers to invest in new equipment for packhouses, Ali said.

Similarly, she called for consistency among retailers on net zero scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions. Each retailer currently wants a different set of data, adding significant duplication, cost and labour for growers who supply multiple retailers, which is the majority.

Running out of options to reduce costs

Growers on the panel said they are looking to invest in new technologies, but much has already been done to stave off inflation, and the ability to mitigate costs just isn’t there anymore.

James said: “In the last 10-15 years, the industry has seen significant step changes in productivity, with more intensive orchard planting, more productive varieties, and in packing facilities, significant investment in automation. 

“But at the moment, there’s not another significant step change on the near horizon that’s going to offset the inflation that’s been coming at us over the last 4-5 years, especially wages…

“It’s going to be really challenging going forward not to push the cost to the consumer.”

What’s on the horizon?

Whilst robotic harvesting is still not there, lots of new varieties are trying to make a breakthrough, said Tony Harding, procurement and technical director for Worldwide Fruit Ltd. Citrus, grapes and soft fruits have really upped their game in the last few years, so top fruit must keep reinventing itself, he added. 

Additionally, the first variety to come out of Hot Climate Partnership in Catalan – called Tutti – has just been planted in Kent.

With this in mind though, we need reassurance from the customer base that investment in a new orchard or variety will be worthwhile, Ali noted.

She concluded by saying that climate maps suggest the UK will continue to be a good place to grow top fruit, and could even improve if temperatures rise as predicted.

Regions that we import from, however, such as Southern Europe, North Africa and the Southern Hemisphere, are likely to see reducing agricultural yields due to increased temperatures and drought.

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